What is up with accuracy?

[Malakin]

Simple, guns say a 5% hit per barrel at the lowest (most of the fight it was actually 15 - 25%), i fire roughly 1100 shells and only get 30 or so recorded hits, whats going on ?

These are 18 inch guns firing at targets moving in a straight line mostly.

[AurumCorvus]

Bad luck mostly. 5% of 1100 is approximately 55 shells, which you're slightly below but otherwise fine.

One of the main problems you're having with the 5% accuracy is that each event is independent. Just because you miss one shot doesn't mean that the next one has a 10% to hit. It still has only 5%, kinda like having to flip a coin.

If you're into probability math, it's because you have to multiply for each event. Having to multiply by 0.05 for 10/15 times is going to sink your overall probability of achieving a particular a certain number of hits.

[Malakin]

30 minutes ago, AurumCorvus said:

Bad luck mostly. 5% of 1100 is approximately 55 shells, which you're slightly below but otherwise fine.

One of the main problems you're having with the 5% accuracy is that each event is independent. Just because you miss one shot doesn't mean that the next one has a 10% to hit. It still has only 5%, kinda like having to flip a coin.

If you're into probability math, it's because you have to multiply for each event. Having to multiply by 0.05 for 10/15 times is going to sink your overall probability of achieving a particular a certain number of hits.

True, if i stayed at 5%, (though 30 is still almost 50% less hits than expected) but i spent most of the fight between 15% and 25%

Edited September 20, 2021 by Malakin

[Drenzul]

21 hours ago, Malakin said:

True, if i stayed at 5%, (though 30 is still almost 50% less hits than expected) but i spent most of the fight between 15% and 25%

The numbers are guesses, not exact. You can see each shell is modelled and the % chance doesn't take everything into account that can happen.

Still like ships listing heavily e.t.c. which can make them really hard to hit.
Also are you including ricochettes, which count as hits?

[Jaime619]

On 9/20/2021 at 1:52 AM, Malakin said:

True, if i stayed at 5%, (though 30 is still almost 50% less hits than expected) but i spent most of the fight between 15% and 25%

Do not forget that immediate evasive action, such as dodging torpedoes or sudden change in direction can throw off the aim even if you have high percentage. Saw it happen quite often on youtube videos, where even with +50% chance the salvo would completely miss the target because of dodging or similar abrupt changes.

[SPANISH_AVENGER]

To me, the issue with accuracy comes when my guns have a 95% hit chance yet keep missing salvo after salvo, without hitting a single shell, while the enemy ship has a 37% hit chance and yet keeps hitting me full salvos every time...

[Cpt.Hissy]

There is an issue. Enemy ship can move steady in a straight line and have ZERO hits despite 20%+ accuracy, and your ships get pummeled starting from ~5% regarless of evasive actions.
Kind of magic number that is, 5%. When their estimate accuracy is below, they barely ever hit. When above, they start hitting reliably.

[neph]

I had two ships firing ~30 9-gun salvos each at 7% accuracy. No maneuvering, parallel broadsides here. I think I got 3 hits total. There's a >50% chance to get a single hit on any given salvo. Once I'd seen them fire 10 salvos each without a single hit, and I think to myself, hmm, what's 0.5^20 (it's roughly one in a million) I start thinking maybe something's up.

Luckily, switching targets seems to fix it.

Edited September 28, 2021 by neph

[LoSboccacc]

since everyone seems to be sharing anecdotal data

 

it started at 5% and grew up to 11%, 9.1% hits is actually overperforming

 

[HistoricalAccuracyMan]

And let's not forget about the "guns per turret system" or "two turret system" that is currently in place as far as aiming goes. That's why wing turrets or USS Nevada/USS Pensacola style builds don't really work "effectively" in this game. It treats every turret with a different number of guns as it's own individual battery: in the case of a USS Nevada type build it treats it as one battery of 2x3 and another battery of 2x2...despite being the same gun size, thus leading to the triples and doubles having different accuracy information.