SmoCro Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I run a couple of games of 4 destroyers against one battleship. Three times the battleship wiped out the 4 destroyers with 6 to 8 salvos at about 5-10 kilometers with an accuracy of less than 4%. The probability for that is a good size last than 4% and the chance of that happening 3 times in a row is going into numbers behind the point. It could be a statistical anomaly but I am dubious. Is the AI cheating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaftoe Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I really dislike those probability values. They are not indicative of the real state of things. Sometimes 4% turns out to be 40%, and so on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmoCro Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, Shaftoe said: I really dislike those probability values. They are not indicative of the real state of things. Sometimes 4% turns out to be 40%, and so on. Explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaftoe Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, SmoCro said: Explain? I believe you do know that % lies on the range from 0 (guaranteed it won't happen) to 100 (guaranteed to happen). The game usually seems to present us with very low hit probability values, below 10%. And yet, it hits. So sometimes it feels like those numbers are not indicative of real chances to hit the enemy. This is why I said that sometimes 4% feels like 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 (edited) I believe the probability shown is per shot, not salvo. 4% for a 10-gun salvo is, I think, 34%? Edited February 2, 2020 by akd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmoCro Posted February 2, 2020 Author Share Posted February 2, 2020 6 gun salvo, 22%...49 percent for two salvos... Ah hello kitty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evil4Zerggin Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Unfortunately, human evaluations of probability are notoriously unreliable. I would consider any such claims to be not credible unless they are accompanied by a controlled trial, or at minimum a video showing repeated occurrences (which could still be cherry-picked, but is still far more credible than nothing). 44 minutes ago, akd said: I believe the probability shown is per shot, not salvo. 4% for a 10-gun salvo is, I think, 34%? Yep, it's per shot unless you're looking at the one explicitly labeled "any of n salvo" in parentheses. 34% is also correct, though depending on how "4%" was rounded it could be anywhere from 30% to 37%. This is also how the "any of n salvo" is computed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hangar18 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 hour ago, akd said: I believe the probability shown is per shot, not salvo. 4% for a 10-gun salvo is, I think, 34%? this guy got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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