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Hit chance and trajectory simulation


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So the game offers (1) percentage hit chance based on a large number of factors and (2) shells follow trajectories defined by physical factors such as drag, gravity, etc.  As far as I can tell, if (2) is true, then (1) has to be some kind of estimate, rather than a "true" hit chance? E.g. some games calculate a hit chance and then make a random roll to determine if a weapon hits or not. But that can't be the case here because the weapon is fired and THEN ships can change course. Does the game use a bunch of factors to generate an error distribution in initial pointing angle and express these in terms of percentages?

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Hit chance is how likely the shells are to land in the area the target is SUPPOSED to be when they come down. You can maneuver out of the area you're predicted to be in after the shells are fired of course.

Edited by Niomedes
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48 minutes ago, Niomedes said:

Hit chance is how likely the shells are to land in the area the target is SUPPOSED to be when they come down

How does the game calculate that chance? 

Let's say that for a particular gun at a particular moment in time, there is an azimuth and elevation angle that will cause the shell to fall on some reference point of the target, assuming the targets maintains it's current manuever. Shells don't actually land here, so there is some distribution of error in azimuth and elevation. Now let's say some component gives me +20% to hit. Somehow that percentage has to translate into an effect on the firing angle error distribution.

I suppose if you multiply the angle error std by sqrt(1/1.2) that would have the right effect, more or less.

Edited by Entropy Avatar
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Most folks have unrealistic perception on hit rates to begin with, the game engine is on average 10x more accurate than traditionally observed. 
 

For example, at “optimal range” against targets coming out of port the USN had a 2.14% confirmed hit report at the Battle of Santiago during the Spanish American War. 
 

Royal Navy wargame rules allowed a single hit per 5 minutes of firing at short range (< 5000 yards) for cruisers and above. Typical broadside would have been 40 main gun shots (not salvos) in that timeframe. 
 

Once RADAR was introduced hit rates increased significantly, but ship to ship action was very rare by then. 

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22 hours ago, Beagle1963 said:

I'm glad if I ever hit the AI hits 50% me 0.5%. have already uninstalled it too much frustration and too little success.

good luck

 

this might be a combination of multiple factors

 

you might be maneuvering too much while the ai is sailing straight

you might not be going optimal speed for accuracy

and you might not have chosen the best accuracy modifying components on your ship

in addition to that some guns have accuracy penalties if used too early on for example triple barrel guns have a -20% accuracy penalty when used early on

if you have 1 twin and 1 triple barreled gun the twin barrel gun also suffers alot from accuracy as it cant get a proper group of shots thus it cant get a proper firing solution

thus if you are using twin gun turrets you ALWAYS need to have 2 of them 

 

just some tips for increasing your own accuracy

(also i believe you need atleast 3 gun barrels to get proper groupings and thus accuracy which means 2x1 layout also sucks)

though 1x2 and 1x1 might work

 

there is also a base accuracy modifier on each gun so it might be advantageous to take smaller guns over bigger guns as they are more accurate (you can look at each guns stats and see the accuracy it changes over time and over missions)

Edited by Christian
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