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(Beep, beep, beep, deeee, roll funky intro with lost of flashing dollar signs.)

Good morning captains, welcome to NAF-News.

NAF-News will keep you all up date to on the most recent developments affecting our economy on all servers (well maybe not PvE :P, that is a weird construct).

Yesterday the new Definitive Pricing Guide was published to update pricing for both EU traders and the new tax rules being imposed.

In today's news, the futures on Iron are going down.

8 hours ago, admin said:

now we need to increase iron supply a bit and maybe add more options for ships-for-combat marks.

I would say, sell, sell, sell people as we'll soon see its price dropping.

Other commodities seem to be holding steady at triple base price. Especially Coal should hold steady for a while.

The Hull Repair market seems especially lucrative although prices have dropped from 4000 / p to 3750 / p.

7 hours ago, shaeberle84 said:

Wait for the ressources which are left in NPC ports to drain, prices for ressources will be back at euro trader prices in two weeks. Mark my works, we will see who is right then.

We are out of hull repairs in Sweden, btw. ^^

For more news, please tune in again soon and watch our in-depth analysis of labor hour prices.

(Roll funky outro, beep, beep, beep, deeee.)

Edited by Skully
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I do believe I'm one of the few Investment Bankers in this age of sail...

@Skully

as your broker I would say "be prepared for a storm is brewing..."

Once the inflation ball starts rolling its very hard to catch up. You always feel like you are behind the current curve.

I will say the NAF-News ticker tape says we are rolling already. Don't through caution to the wind but by God man GET LONG strategic base Commodities in size. Iron Ore, Live Oak and you know the rest.

I've posted already the invoice for my advisory service with the usual 10% discount for such a valued client as yourself

yours sincerely,

Norfolk nChance [ELITE]

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12 minutes ago, Norfolk nChance said:

Once the inflation ball starts rolling its very hard to catch up. You always feel like you are behind the current curve.

You can never charge more than EU price in a production port. Clan AI has put an unlimited offer block at that price.

Prices in other ports can only go up through transport cost, so that is where the competition lies.

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(Beep, beep, beep, deeee, roll funky intro with lost of flashing dollar signs.)

NAF-News brings you the latest update to your doorstep.

EU prices are not 3x base prices, but seem to be 4x base prices.

Price Guide update to follow shortly.

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Hull repair for 3700 equals labour value of about 350 g/LH alreadyB) While it was about 100 g/LH prepatch, 350% inflation already after 2? weeks only lets us speculate. Mark value using a basic 5th rate as reference worth 75 marks accordingly rises to about 13k gold/mark. 

Im exiting to see if it can raise further after european trader price level is reached. A fixed resource price niveau would usually mean a stable labour value... if those resources are crafted. But when more resources get bought not consuming labour, labour could do whatever it wants.

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42 minutes ago, Fargo said:

350 g/LH

There is more to it though. Lets for the moment just look at resources and see which resource makes the most on labor.

+-----------------------+---------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| Resource              | Weight  | EU Price  | Craft     | Labor     | EU + Tax  | Hour Rate |
+-----------------------+---------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| Bermuda Cedar         |    0.45 |    772.00 |     68.00 |      0.25 |    849.20 |   2816.00 |
| Coal                  |    0.30 |    120.00 |     30.00 |      0.13 |    132.00 |    720.00 |
| Compass Wood          |    0.75 |   1000.00 |    250.00 |      0.50 |   1100.00 |   1500.00 |
| Copper Ore            |    1.00 |    240.00 |     60.00 |      0.25 |    264.00 |    720.00 |
| Cotton                |    0.30 |    240.00 |     35.00 |      0.25 |    264.00 |    820.00 |
| Extra Labor           |    0.10 | 200000.00 |  50000.00 |    500.00 | 220000.00 |    300.00 |
| Fir Log               |    0.42 |    240.00 |     60.00 |      0.25 |    264.00 |    720.00 |
| Food Supplies         |    0.58 |     96.00 |     35.00 |      0.17 |    105.60 |    366.00 |
| Gold                  |    0.30 |    608.00 |    152.00 |      0.50 |    668.80 |    912.00 |
| Hemp                  |    0.30 |    212.00 |     53.00 |      0.25 |    233.20 |    636.00 |
| Iron Advanced Bluep.. |    0.30 |    240.00 |     78.00 |      1.00 |    264.00 |    162.00 |
| Iron Ore              |    0.30 |    240.00 |     60.00 |      0.13 |    264.00 |   1440.00 |
| Lignum Vitae Log      |    1.20 |    300.00 |     75.00 |      0.50 |    330.00 |    450.00 |
| Live Oak Log          |    0.93 |    596.00 |    125.00 |      0.25 |    655.60 |   1884.00 |
| Mahogany Log          |    0.54 |    320.00 |     70.00 |      0.25 |    352.00 |   1000.00 |
| Oak Log               |    0.72 |    292.00 |     73.00 |      0.25 |    321.20 |    876.00 |
| Pine Log              |    2.50 |    240.00 |     60.00 |      0.25 |    264.00 |    720.00 |
| Red Wood Log          |    2.50 |    280.00 |     70.00 |      0.50 |    308.00 |    420.00 |
| Saltpeter             |    1.00 |    184.00 |     46.00 |      0.50 |    202.40 |    276.00 |
| Silver                |    0.30 |    400.00 |    100.00 |      0.50 |    440.00 |    600.00 |
| Stone Block           |    0.30 |     80.00 |     20.00 |      0.25 |     88.00 |    240.00 |
| Sugar                 |    1.00 |    208.00 |     52.00 |      0.25 |    228.80 |    624.00 |
| Sulphur               |    1.00 |    192.00 |     48.00 |      0.50 |    211.20 |    288.00 |
| Teak Log              |    0.60 |    976.00 |     70.00 |      0.25 |   1073.60 |   3624.00 |
| Tobacco               |    1.00 |    400.00 |     55.00 |      0.25 |    440.00 |   1380.00 |
+-----------------------+---------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
Average hour rate: 939.76

Now this is unrealized profit, you first actually have to sell to make it realized profit. This is where demand comes into the picture.

Given that you would need Coal, Iron Ore and Oak Log for the Hull Repairs, you could reason we're up to $ 1000 / lh. :P

Now to make your profit realized you would sell the actual Hull Repair for whatever price you can get. So you would need to bring down your hour rate.

On 9/14/2017 at 7:12 AM, Skully said:

We can try and find the fair price, lets start with putting an extra 0 behind every resource price. Or rather lets charge $500 per labor hour. Hopefully I have time today to put up a new definitive price guide.

In short, it's not that easy to find the going hour rate, but we can make a good attempt. ^_^

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Speculators are often wrong while stockpiling , pre war

 

When the war starts , we'll have a better idea of what to expect and price accordingly. Right now it's a question of what you need for any battle or to recover any lost ships, upgrades , modules , rum and repairs.

 

It's not worth worrying about until we actually start to incur losses , whether they be ships , ports or sailors

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(Beep, beep, beep, deeee, roll funky intro with lost of flashing dollar signs.)

This is NAF-News coming to you with a Global update.

There is roughly 30K Iron Ore sitting idle in Amalienborg for as little as $98 / p. Come get it while stock lasts.

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11 hours ago, Vizzini said:

Speculators are often wrong while stockpiling , pre war

 

When the war starts , we'll have a better idea of what to expect and price accordingly. Right now it's a question of what you need for any battle or to recover any lost ships, upgrades , modules , rum and repairs.

 

It's not worth worrying about until we actually start to incur losses , whether they be ships , ports or sailors

Losses will have little impact, because we already know we can't outproduce the infinite production of EU traders.

Hence prices will stick close to EU prices. There is no point to sell cheaper unless actual competition will start on production markets.

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On 16.9.2017 at 12:42 PM, Skully said:

Now this is unrealized profit, you first actually have to sell to make it realized profit. This is where demand comes into the picture.

Given that you would need Coal, Iron Ore and Oak Log for the Hull Repairs, you could reason we're up to $ 1000 / lh. :P

Now to make your profit realized you would sell the actual Hull Repair for whatever price you can get. So you would need to bring down your hour rate.

As you said, random prices dont make market prices, when people arent actually buying for that prices. So these tables require a working economy, and by implication if people arent actually buying for these prices it indicates that its not working. It probably became meaningless already.

What i can tell so far is that materials definitely sell slowly for 350 g/LH, while the ship market is completely empty without any demand. I have only an essex for sale, but that should sell pretty fast without competition for 350g/LH. I doubt its ever selling, and i doubt i would be able to sell even a 1st rate for 6-7 mio. Im counting 4 material contracts in total for sweden! 

12 hours ago, Skully said:

Hence prices will stick close to EU prices. There is no point to sell cheaper unless actual competition will start on production markets.

And competition is not happening when people dont need to care about money.

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3 hours ago, Mrgoldstein said:

On eu server it is already settling down, ships are selling quick and at the same prices as before the patch,people who try to raise prices up are being called out and their stuff wont sell.

Thats not how it works. Either there is competition, or there isnt. You can only raise prices when you buy everything that is sold for lower prices. In the end its not the seller, but the buyer who defines how high prices can raise. If you are able to organise a small population to keep prices low, it does not negate the fact that they would be able to pay much more, and thats just not a free market anymore.

I can only talk for sweden, but i guess its even one of the larger nations. The ship and material market is empty, there is literally 0 competition. Blanishing is not going to change anything. Observing rewards, and how many ships are lost each day shows that more than 10 times more money is entering economy than its leaving the market. Its not going to improve, its just a matter of time until people and clans are saturated.

Ships must not sell for the same prices than before. Why shoud i care about selling 5th rates for 400k, when i can just do a simple 100% risk free mission for more profit?!

Edited by Fargo

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(Beep, beep, beep, deeee, roll funky intro with lost of flashing dollar signs.)

The futures on Cartagena Tar are stabilizing. The ever going price increase is expected to stop soon. This might even be followed by a small drop (in prize).

Captains should keep in consideration to not sail what they can't afford to lose and a 1M upgrade is something you should not be put to risk too eagerly:D

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This may be a silly question regarding inflation but I wanted to be certain, since Missions (Combat missions, fleet missions ect) give an amount of money (example 100k) for 

doing the mission isn't this technically inflating the economy by putting in money that came out of nowhere (Kind of money laundering?) if so this is true prices will definitely keep

going up as every 1$ is worth less and less since there is so many 1$s 

 

Or I maybe be completely wrong?

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1 hour ago, CaptainDeMalte said:

This may be a silly question regarding inflation but I wanted to be certain, since Missions (Combat missions, fleet missions ect) give an amount of money (example 100k) for 

doing the mission isn't this technically inflating the economy by putting in money that came out of nowhere (Kind of money laundering?) if so this is true prices will definitely keep

going up as every 1$ is worth less and less since there is so many 1$s 

 

Or I maybe be completely wrong?

Not necessarily inflating, but this is the major money printing machine.

Inflation depends on how much money people sink over the same period of time. Thats basically all money used to gather resources, or that goes to npcs in general. While resources are directly related to ships, the amount of money sunk by resource gathering directly depends on the amount of ships lost. So whenever you loose a ship, you sink money equal to its resource gathering value. When youre ship is boarded, it remains in the game and you only sink money equal to the resource value of its cannons. When more money gets printed than sunk, thats inflation. 

When you stack resources, thats not a money sink, because you could always exchange those resources back into money (Goods never loose quality or rot, they remain forever). This means that until labour is limiting production, money inflation directly results in inflation of goods.

How prices raise not only depends on money inflation. If money would loose value equally to goods, prices would probably stay the same. In theory, cause at some point people just wont sell or buy anything anymore.

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On 9/22/2017 at 3:55 PM, CaptainDeMalte said:

doing the mission isn't this technically inflating the economy by putting in money that came out of nowhere (Kind of money laundering?) if so this is true prices will definitely keep

going up as every 1$ is worth less and less since there is so many 1$s 

Nope. The prices are limited by supply. Clan AI provides infinite supply through EU traders at 4x base price in production ports. So this is the upper limit for resource prices (at production ports).

The only prices that go up "infinitely" are rare resources for which the supply is controlled by Clan AI. (If a player could influence that supply of resources, then it would be a bug.) There is nothing wrong with a low supply of rare resources, but those resources will then go to the richest players.

On the other side of the coin, there is no demand for gold. Everybody has plenty, so prices are free to go up.

Going into the example of Cartagena Tar, there are two factors which will limit the price:

  1. Clan AI needs to produce a small quantity at steady price, regardless of player offers. (Highest bid gets it.)
  2. You can't sail what you can't afford to lose. At some point the price of the upgrade becomes so high, that it won't be economically viable to undock such a ship for any battle. (Grinding the gold back still takes too much time.)

In short, from the price perspective we have reached the limit of the market.

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So, I just came back to naval action after a long brake of, id say atleast 4 months. What is the general situation of the economy? Can I still earn money by making runs between producing and consuming ports?

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5 hours ago, nuclearjasper said:

So, I just came back to naval action after a long brake of, id say atleast 4 months. What is the general situation of the economy? Can I still earn money by making runs between producing and consuming ports?

If you were gone 4 months, you missed the period when trade was virtually useless in making money compared to grinding missions. They improved it a few weeks ago and things are profitable again. Welcome back. 

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On 24.09.2017 at 8:07 AM, Skully said:

Going into the example of Cartagena Tar, there are two factors which will limit the price:

  1. Clan AI needs to produce a small quantity at steady price, regardless of player offers. (Highest bid gets it.)
  2. You can't sail what you can't afford to lose. At some point the price of the upgrade becomes so high, that it won't be economically viable to undock such a ship for any battle. (Grinding the gold back still takes too much time.)

In short, from the price perspective we have reached the limit of the market.

I'm afraid you're very wrong. Cartagena costs approx 160k per piece now. Let's check in 2 weeks. In the current setup it will increase its price indefinitely, being bought out by old players and being completely unaccessible to new players. Gold will continue to loose value. 

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34 minutes ago, oldcrankyman said:

I'm really surprised by how many people don't know the difference between "lose" and "loose".   I guess they don't teach spelling any more?

Or English isnt their first language.

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On 10/26/2017 at 9:24 AM, Hodo said:

Or English isnt their first language.

I think that you'll find the 2nd language people spell a LOT better than the young people who went through what we call an education system in this country.

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3 hours ago, Jean Ribault said:

Hey, just curious, is Skully still banned or did he just quit after that?  Anyone know?

Possible both - most of the group he was part of also all don't play anymore.

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Skully's PC crashed and he is trying to recover a lot of info from the hard drives. A few of us still playing of course but with the downtime right in the middle of our prime time despite requests to move it means most of us who start early cant do anything. It really is annoying and uneccessary as well as moving it right by a few hours would make it better

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