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Skully

Compass/Fish market crashes, where is the Market Maker?

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Before I get into the details, yes this has been posted before. And yes, admin noted a potential exploit if this was implemented straight forward as previously proposed. However I think I can amend the previous proposals in such a way to make them work.

 

http://forum.game-labs.net/index.php?/topic/13837-dynamic-economy-must-be-updated-every-day-by-the-server-itself/

 

http://forum.game-labs.net/index.php?/topic/7055-uniprice-for-ressources/?p=133889

Unified pricing in the way you described can only work in a single player game, and only in the static price environment. 

In the dynamic price environment it will provide infinite money:

In case it requires 1000 to move the price.

Buy 1000 at 20 - price goes up to 21 - Sell 1000 at 21 - price goes down to 20 - Buy 1000 at 20.... repeat 

 

We have already seen the compass market crash to an abrupting halt. And so is the fish market heading the same way. It is simply weird that from one day to the next (NPC) consumption turns into a lottery ticket. Instead the NPC trader should adjust his pricing to market circumstances.

 

There is more going to be needed behind the economic model, like ensuring NPC traders only perform their function and do not outplay the player trading market. But I think we can park that for now and focus on port pricing.

 

What I have seen so far does not mimic how a dynamic pricing model works. Since most models lead to pricing on the spot and we already have contracts in place, I think in our case we can simply make due with a market maker.

 

The wikipedia page on market maker is a bit short, so rather I refer to:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bid%E2%80%93ask_spread

 

In essence it boils down to two things:

  1. Transactions are limited in the amount to be transacted.
  2. The execution price is not dictated by the current price, but by the future price.

The first ensures that for the price listed at a port you can execute a full transaction (buy or sell). No funkiness (of other models) that change price on the fly.

 

The second covers the exploit admin was talking about. If you execute a full transaction, you can execute the reverse at no profit or cost.

 

To make it work, you simply define the spread you want to use for a commodity and the maximum transaction size. The rest is all calculus.

demand index = (avg. price / spread) * order size

And then the actual demand scales linearly as stock changes.

See https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VIzDMmnXiq59XBjVmlIvntCm2RTcoypymowm4Qh7S4A/edit#gid=837256850 as an example calculation for Coal.

 

Now for normal ports (non-consuming, non-producing) there should be no fiddling with the price or index. Rather the demand value of 0 should always be used and for supply +50% of the associated index. This will put an empty port at the mid prices equally to prices currently in game.

 

Optionally, but highly recommended is adding the current production values of a port to the supply (as it is a future that is guaranteed to pass), likewise adding consumption to the demand.

 

Next stop will be challenging the contract cost, because the liquidity cost is already way too high.

 

Please let me know if anybody sees a potential problem or exploit.

I'm also curious if you are not in favor as to why. :)

 

PS. Numbers should be rounded in favor of the NPC, to prevent 1$ abuses.

Edited by Skully
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Production and Consumption must be linked to Nation / Faction control.

 

As it is, each captain looks to ports only as means to an end - facilities for producing cash.

 

Port Morale equals ( tweaked ) Consumption needs, economy grows and Production increases, or Morale drops and Nation loses control of it.

 

Ensure spread of selling to ports and there will be no more 25k units everywhere.

 

"Oh no! Now I have to sail more and more..." - Yes. That's how an Empire is maintained. With a strong and willing Navy to protect a Merchant Navy.

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Before I get into the details, yes this has been posted before. And yes, admin noted a potential exploit if this was implemented straight forward as previously proposed. However I think I can amend the previous proposals in such a way to make them work.

 

http://forum.game-labs.net/index.php?/topic/13837-dynamic-economy-must-be-updated-every-day-by-the-server-itself/

 

http://forum.game-labs.net/index.php?/topic/7055-uniprice-for-ressources/?p=133889

 

We have already seen the compass market crash to an abrupting halt. And so is the fish market heading the same way. It is simply weird that from one day to the next (NPC) consumption turns into a lottery ticket. Instead the NPC trader should adjust his pricing to market circumstances.

 

There is more going to be needed behind the economic model, like ensuring NPC traders only perform their function and do not outplay the player trading market. But I think we can park that for now and focus on port pricing.

 

What I have seen so far does not mimic how a dynamic pricing model works. Since most models lead to pricing on the spot and we already have contracts in place, I think in our case we can simply make due with a market maker.

 

The wikipedia page on market maker is a bit short, so rather I refer to:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bid%E2%80%93ask_spread

 

In essence it boils down to two things:

  1. Transactions are limited in the amount to be transacted.
  2. The execution price is not dictated by the current price, but by the future price.

The first ensures that for the price listed at a port you can execute a full transaction (buy or sell). No funkiness (of other models) that change price on the fly.

 

The second covers the exploit admin was talking about. If you execute a full transaction, you can execute the reverse at no profit or cost.

 

To make it work, you simply define the spread you want to use for a commodity and the maximum transaction size. The rest is all calculus.

demand index = (avg. price / spread) * order size

And then the actual demand scales linearly as stock changes.

See https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VIzDMmnXiq59XBjVmlIvntCm2RTcoypymowm4Qh7S4A/edit#gid=837256850 as an example calculation for Coal.

 

Now for normal ports (non-consuming, non-producing) there should be no fiddling with the price or index. Rather the demand value of 0 should always be used and for supply +50% of the associated index. This will put an empty port at the mid prices equally to prices currently in game.

 

Optionally, but highly recommended is adding the current production values of a port to the supply (as it is a future that is guaranteed to pass), likewise adding consumption to the demand.

 

Next stop will be challenging the contract cost, because the liquidity cost is already way too high.

 

Please let me know if anybody sees a potential problem or exploit.

I'm also curious if you are not in favor as to why. :)

 

PS. Numbers should be rounded in favor of the NPC, to prevent 1$ abuses.

 totally agree and the aswers of sail more sound like bad jokes

whats happend when all the ports get full?? because is going to happend more sooner tha later beacuse the game is full of crazy profit speculators who don't give a shit for the empire 

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We have already seen the compass market crash to an abrupting halt. And so is the fish market heading the same way. It is simply weird that from one day to the next (NPC) consumption turns into a lottery ticket. Instead the NPC trader should adjust his pricing to market circumstances.

 

The Iron Ore market crashes right now the same, the other goods markets crash. And crash is hereby defined as prices go down, because no one buys it anymore, especially not the npc ports with the 1g barrier at 25,000 pieces.

 

However, a crash is not the only way a market can fail. I consider most goods markets in this economy have failed, because for most goods, I cannot buy them at a reasonable amount below the EU trader price. Almost every single good is sold out in almost every port, with buy contracts all over the place. So, the NPC economy fails.

 

The player economy fails as well as there are not enough building slots and production is heavy on fixed costs, so that a player cannot react to market changes without risking huge losses.

But you will get this kind of problems with a fixed price system all the time.

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Before I get into the details, yes this has been posted before. And yes, admin noted a potential exploit if this was implemented straight forward as previously proposed. However I think I can amend the previous proposals in such a way to make them work.

 

 

 

Optionally, but highly recommended is adding the current production values of a port to the supply (as it is a future that is guaranteed to pass), likewise adding consumption to the demand.

 

 

 

 

trading/npc supply/resource distribution will be adjusted in the future after politics

I would suggest you to take control over this issue and create a megapost with links to all good proposals on economy improvements and structured analysis of those - i will pin it - we will use it in the future once we get back to trading

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fishing is crap on the EU server.   Every place you go the towns that consume fish are so overloaded with the free fish.   Fishing needs to slow you down and make it so war vessels with arms cannot fish.

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At zero cost any price above zero is profit. Pile up fish meat and sell it by contract under the NPC value. Pretty sure you will have absolutely no problem selling especially if the price is nice.

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fishing is crap on the EU server.   Every place you go the towns that consume fish are so overloaded with the free fish.   Fishing needs to slow you down and make it so war vessels with arms cannot fish.

It will balance. As the activity becomes less profitable less will do it.

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It has even now come to the point where I'm starting to buy fish meat as my traveling doesn't cover my fish meat needs. :)

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