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  1. Hello guys, after latest economy patch and denomination, the market is trying to settle down and stabilise. Some facts about what happened / changed by developers : * Our gold denominated by 1/25th by developers into Reals. * New currency introduced, Dubloons. Historical value of 1 dubloons = 39 reals. So now stabilising down to 1 dubloons = 50-60 reals in capitols. I guess developers will ensure it will stabilise around 1 dubloons = 40 reals by controlling dubloons flow into NA world. * Crafting now requires dubloons for above and including 4th rate ships. So ship prices increased. * Economy resource farming has been much more difficult due to increased labour hour requirements and labour hour exchange fixed rate of 1LH = 400 dubloons in Admirality. * Pvp marks being very valuable just turned into dust, no value. Many pvp rewards now much cheaper and easier to acquire by dubloons, they are not pvp rewards anymore. * Admirality ships can be bought with dubloons. Current Situation about Economy : * Players did not know how to react to new reals and dubloons. * Unreal prices for ships and upgrades as contracts has been observed heavily. * Actually 1/25 was incorrect information, that is what developers did to our golds as just a number, reality was much different. What really happened : * A shop frigate (crewspace / random wood) used to be 112k gold. It became 12k reals. As for affording this ship, 112k / 25 = 4,5k was expected. New frigate price is 12k instead of 4,5k which is 3 times more than what it should be. So Shop NPC Ship price scale, actual denomination was 1/10 but our gold had been denominated into reals by 1/25 ! * So a player 5th rate used to sell for 500k old gold currency, now should be 50k reals on npc ship price scale. A first rate around 5 million should be 500k, but it is not. WHY ? Because labour hours are much difficult to acquire, resources difficult to acquire, dubloons needed for bigger ships. Let's go with 1 dubloon = 50 reals scale as it is coming around to that value. * Let's check a 1st rate ship; 1st rate ship, L'Ocean 9200 dubloons = 460k reals at 1dub=50 reals rate. 2000 labour hours, 500lh = 400 dubloons, 2000 labour hours = 1600 dubs = 80k reals 3 victory marks, 50k reals x 3 = 150k reals Other than required resources, our 1st rate costs 690k reals. 690k reals + standart resources + special wood prices for frame and planking. Assuming Lo/Wo, so 2900 Lo and 655 Wo required. You can estimate a final cost. If 200 reals for each, 3555 x 200 = 700k for main woods, let's say 100k for other resources. Finaly, a L'Ocean which is Lo/Wo, woods purchased as 200 reals will cost ===> 1.5 million reals. If you have the resources and labour hours, it will cost around 1 million reals. This is standart 3/5 blue ship. Base price settles at 1 million reals. Agamemnon base price being around 200k, rises with selection of better woods availability up to 300k. Bellona 4200 dubs + 1 victory mark + 1500 lh + resources ===> 320 base cost up to 550k. Buc 5400 dub + 2 vm + 1500 lh + resources ===> 430k base cost up to 700k. What about 5th rates which does not require any dubloons for crafting ? Most expansive can be Indefatigable due to more resource required. Assuming you have all the resources just paying 1000 dubloons for LH. Special woods (1100 logs of frame + 250 planking) are the only price factor here. So Sabicu/Sabicu indefatigable should require 1350 x 10 = 13500 for sabicu woods, 1350 x 100 = 135000 for bettter woods. Ship price base price around 50k reals + LH (another 50k if you do not have labour hours), so starting from 50k with %50 profit we should see 75k shop price which is not the case. I would say 150k is a good price for special woods. Another point is upgrade prices. People selling Basic Gunpowder for 10k, Copper Plating for 200k, according to me these are very inflated prices. Developers should spawn some of the basic upgrades at ports, to control these ridiculious prices. Conclusion : 1) Expected aproximate base prices of ships excluding overpriced special woods and crafter profits; 1st rate 1 million reals 2nd rate 500k reals 3rd rate 350k reals 4th rate 230k reals 5th rate 50k reals 2) Still rare upgrade prices are much more than ship prices, widening gap between players, thus should be controlled and much cheaper. 3) crafted 5th rate ship prices are inflated, captured 5th rate crew/wood ships are mostly trash and should be much cheaper.
  2. The forthcoming server wipe will remove vast hoards of accumulated gold and has been welcomed by many players as the chance to eliminate inflation and start again. I thought I'd take a look at the economy to see if these hopes are justified, and maybe uncover other things on the way. We don't yet know what the economy will look like after the wipe. All we know for certain is that all gold will vanish and ships will have 1 dura. What I want to do here is look at the economy as it is now, so we can offer suggestions to help the devs make the best decisions before 20th April. In this post I will use current recipes, building capacities, compass wood drop rates. I'll also use grey ships as this seems to be the best guess at what post-wipe ships will be. To save you wading through treacle, I'll start with the conclusions: Without major changes to blueprints, inflation will quickly become a problem again A grey Trincomalee costs 79273 gold in click costs, which might sound reasonable enough. But it requires over 2 days' stored labour. Essentially, crafters can only sink, on average, about 30k-40k gold a day which is a small fraction of the money coming into the economy. Following the wipe we will all be poor to start with, setting up outposts and buildings (generally more expensive than building ships - but you should only need to do it once). But gold will quickly accumulate, with apparently nowhere to go. There isn't a single right solution to this. Increasing blueprint click costs would help, as would reducing LH requirements. The devs could introduce new or increase existing gold sinks, such as crew costs, repairs, gunpowder and ammo - but if these are player made then they too need a high gold to LH ratio to have an effect on inflation. Or they could sell things players might want to buy, such as paints. But it has to be something that players will buy again and again. Existing blueprints encourage econ alts If you only have to find 30k gold a day to fund your econ alt, this is easy. But if blueprint click costs averaged 100k per day this would be rather harder to support. Of course, the devs might wish to passively encourage alts as they gain money that way; furthermore econ alts do help reduce inflation as they sink money without generating any. You had better look after your 1 dura ship That Trincomalee you have takes nearly 2.5 days to make. A Constitution takes 4 days. Even a Surprise takes 1.5. It does look like blueprint LH requirements need to come down. Capping off NPCs and selling/trading capped ships could wreck the economy Not really part of this analysis but I thought I'd mention it here anyway. If ships capped off NPCs are similar to player-made ships, then who will buy player-made ships? What, then, do you spend your accumulated gold on? There is a different problem capping ships off players. Capping a ship once is probably fine - at least one player has to go out and buy a new one. Being able to cap the ship back later might sound line a game wrecker, but I don't think it is. Players aren't all the same and I don't see a single ship passing between players countless times; some players will consistently lose ships and others will win them. Provided winners are prevented from trading ships back to losers then new ships will still be needed. You only need level 1 buildings (edit from original post) 5 level 1 builfdings - trading like for like with other players who mine different resources - provide more than enough raw materials to use all your labour hours. Incidentally, this allows scope for introduction of some sort of resource control, such as I posted here, to make the economy more interesting without damaging it. ... and for those who like treacle ... Data and Analysis I've taken blueprint data from the json files, parsed it into a database and extracted it into a more usable form in a spreadsheet. I've checked it as best I can, but not as well as I would like and it is entirely possible there is an important error that renders this entire post meaningless. I've ignored NPC production of craftable materials. I don't know whether or not NPCs will continue to sell craftable materials but my first thoughts are this will make little difference; it will sink a little more gold, and ease LH restrictions, but not by much. I have looked at seven ships, all made of oak and all grey (trim doesn't matter for grey ships), to see how much gold and time goes into making them LH is labour hours; we currently get 1008 of these a day, without perks. BH is building hours. Each building has a daily production capacity and a building hour will make one 24th of this. With 5 level 1 buildings each player has 120 biulding hours a day (240 for level 3) - and in the BH days column I have assumed level 1 buildings. [edited]. The two 'days' columns show how many player-days are needed to build each ship (it is the higher of the two numbers that counts); it also represents the replacement time. If every player had a Trincomalee and also used all their labour hours, then they could only get a replacement ship every 2.5 days. Better look after it, then. It is interesting to note that BH days are always less than LH days, and that is with level 1 buildings. No need to waste 200k on level 3 buildings and you can afford to leave some of that coal unmined. [edited] But the important number for inflation is gold per day. If you are making Trincomalees you churn out a new ship every 2.5 days, sinking 79273 gold in the process, meaning you are only spending 32000 gold a day. But how much gold can you generate in a day? Capturing a single traders cutter and selling the cargo to NPCs in the shop will usually get you that. It seems to me that gold will accumulate in the game far quicker than it can possibly be spent, and inflation will continue. Sure, we will all be poor to start with as we set up outposts and buildings (which, incidentally, for each player will probably sink more gold than making a 1st rate - this game is terribly punishing to new players), but this is a one time only cost. In a week we'll all be rolling in gold but there won't be any ships to be had to buy because they take so long to make. Now for a quick comparison with Pirates of the Burning Sea, since I happen to have the data to hand. Be a little wary of drawing too many conclusions as Naval Action has deliberately chosen a different path from PotBS. Perhaps most notably in this context, the original PotBS economy had severe restrictions on gold (doubloons or db) entering circulation and also sought to restrict the creation and use of 'elite' ships by setting very high gold and labour requirements, paths which NA appears not to wish to follow. Quite rightly it seems, as PotBS eventually abandoned both approaches, although to be fair the gold restriction looked sound from my point of view and just needed relaxing a little. But player complaints of having no money for crafting or buying anything resulted in a wholesale overturn of the policy, flooding the economy with gold from massively-generous repeatable missions, which unsurprisingly resulted in wild inflation. A couple years later by which time lots of players had first or second rates and port battles were won or lost before they even started by whichever nation was brave enough to bring the big ships (it was rarely both), first and second rates were removed entirely from the game. The numbers below are from build 1.26, before FTP and the disappearance of first and second rates. For those who never played, the Heavy Hercules was also an elite ship, hence its high price and labour requirements - it certainly wasn't five times better than the Capricieux MC: Ignoring the top three elites, there is a very interesting contrast with NA in just how few labour hours were needed to build the smaller ships. The Cap MC isn't far off a Trincomalee in its place in the game, but only took a day to build a 3-dura ship instead of over 2 days for a grey (and nearly 4 days for a gold). Smaller ships could be churned out very quickly indeed. However, despite the variation in gold and LH costs, PotBS ships are as consistent as NA in their gold per day requirements (again, excluding the elites at the top), suggesting NA has the right idea, just with the gold to labour ratio set too low. Edited as I origianlly had the 504 LH per real life day when it should have been 1108. Also the tables didn't copy across on the original so I have added them as images Edited again as I got the building hours wrong too. The clocks changing must have addled my brain, mking me think there were only 12 hours in day.
  3. Just a small suggestion while an asset wipe is probably not going to happen in the near future. When introducing the admiralty store, expand it and make all marks, paints, etc. availiable for gold in addition. Appropriately expensive ofcourse... people would spend millions just for paints. Prices might need adjustment when hyperinflation decreases, but just that would be a success. Ofcourse this would only affect the time until a full asset wipe is going to happen, but the effort should be very little. You could also test how good an inflation control based on those items would work with future inflation in mind (after release wipes are no option anymore). In addition people would have more opportunities to test the new admiralty items now. Why reward exploiters? There is no other way, but all rewards are consumables and will be gone after some time nevertheless. Why is inflation so bad, even if money exploits get fixed? Unless you raise all fixed npc prices and rewards, money wont recover its value. When items become expensive, only the labour value is rising. But labour is neglectable, because it increases your income in the same way. To show the dimension: If you own 100mio gold, thats currently worth the resource value of 5000 golden 5th rate duras. 5000 ships, even when you pvp much and loose a ship each day, thats 13 years of potential gameplay stored! The problem with inflation in general: When money looses meaning, so does everything directly related to it: Economy, trading, combat rewards, crew and repair cost. And so does the gameplay directly related to those.
  4. When you came across the word inflation. What would be the FIRST thing that came to you mind? The government of Zimbabwe had to completely abandon its own currency in 2015 or Your parents moan that that bowl of noodles used to cost 50 cents and all you needed was 20 000 to own a house back ‘in the old days’. I came across an interesting concept about nationwide having the same currency with the same unit. Which means, if you pay 1 Ringgit Malaysia of Nasi Lemak in Malaysia. You will be able to get 1 USD of Nasi Lemak in the state. How cool is that? When I was digging deeper in the world of internet. I came across a platform called BOOKCOINS, with the tagline “Protecting your wealth against inflation”. Although the website was written in funny English (probably a direct translation from Chinese or malay), but it carries an interesting concept. It says, a unit of BC was created as 1 unit gram of silver. So user can buy Silver in any amount and change them to BC. In the future, BC will become a currency that can be use anywhere in the world, with 1 unit, which is BC in 1 currency. With this concept, do you think inflation can be eliminated?
  5. I remember in my first week of Naval Action I found some gold ports in the far west corner of the Dutch region. It took me some time to figure out how to buy gold that was produced by the ports. Eventually I made 1.000.000 gold in roughly one week by transporting and selling crafting notes. But nowadays you hear people talking about earning this amount in a couple hours of doing high tier missions. What is the result of such a difference of income and what can be done? Trading between ports. The lack of reward for trading between ports vastly limits the amount of players that are willing to do trading runs, because of their high opportunity costs (they could run a mission in the same time and yield 10x the amount). Attacking contraband traders. The time you invest into reducing sails and capturing a trader is simply not worth it anymore. A friend of mine that just started to play wanted to attack a contraband trader and so I helped him. After he was able to kill off all the crew of the trader I helped him sail the ship back to the capital where he wanted to sell his newly gained resources. But he gained around 20.000 gold for his effort at which he said; let’s not do this again. Like with trading, it simply does not compete in gold/hour with missions right now. Hunting player traders. Naval Action is a PVP-game after all, so hunting player traders is part of the content in Naval Action. Hunting near enemy gold or silver ports could be an aspect of the game. But like the first two points, inflation kills this incentive significantly. But a second killer of the cat-and mouse game of traders and hunters is the teleport ability with your cargo, but this is not my main issue of this thread. These are some examples of content that is being lost because of the current inflation, I suspect that compass wood money pump is not fixed to see what happens with inflation in Naval Action. What we see is that gold is become less and less of a commodity and crafting notes are being hoarded, because the notes are tied with a limited good – higher tier labour hours. I am not arguing that these content examples are not happening right now. Of course some people will participate in them because they might be fun to do. But right now it’s not balanced for players to enjoy trading as a money making mechanic, as they are throwing away money (they could do something more lucrative - opportunity costs). Another limitng factor of the market dynamics is the extreme high tax on selling items on the market. Ship selling and shop, 10% and 5% respectively. For the lower tier goods/ships people tend to not care as much. But if someone is market-pvping with notes, 50.000 gold for each adjustment is not doable and people will leave their order as is. This lack of adjustment leads to more static prices in the market, people are not as willing to over and undercut as much as they would like. This might sound contradicting, me whining about inflation and asking for a reduction in tax (one less gold sink in the game if it is reduced). But right now the tax gold sink for higher tier goods is not utilized significantly. My opinion would be to create different gold sinks than tax on trading on the market, because this tax introduces less competition – which is bad. The amount of ships on the market in a capital (Willemstad for this example) is as of the 30th April 2016 the following: 14, 39, 44, 2, 1, 0 and 0 ships (7th till 1st rate respectively). The lack of 3rd, 2nd and 1st rates is mainly driven by three forces; (i) lack of crafters able to create hem, (ii) willingness to sell to market instead of clan and (iii) the tax rate. I mostly see people selling their 3rd, 2nd and 1st rates in chat and thus private chat. Who would want to forgo 10% of his revenue for just putting it up for sale on the market? This issue reflects on the transparency of the market. People are not competing with each other on prices, which equals a worse off consumer. In conclusion, the ability to earn gold is not balanced right now in the game due to what I suspect to be an experiment by the developers. This causes some parts of the content to be non-viable for a substantial amount of players. A rebalance of (i) gold earned for kill/assist, (ii) compass wood and (iii) teleport could result in a more balanced pallet of content. Ships and good prices on the market are not as dynamics as they could be because of high tax rates. A reduction of (iv) the tax rate could lead to a more competitive market and result in lower prices for consumers. ** Soon crew will cost a significant amount, which is a great addition to the game in terms of battling the inflation with a new gold sink. But this does not take away the effect of gold income imbalance that we are seeing right now ** tl;dr – (i) balance amount of gold earned for other parts of the game to be viable again and (ii) reduce the tax in the ship and shop market to create more competition - by making adjusting orders less expensive.
  6. Inflation in online games with money can often become a problem, and it is important for the devs to think about it and put in systems to stop it happening, here is a video that talks about the problem and some ides for fixing it
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